Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing September 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $275 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $275 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 3029.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is severely mispriced or reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine conviction about rate hike probability. With 139 days to expiry and a wide 10¢ spread, this contract would be difficult to exit at fair value, and the neutral regime score indicates no strong directional bias from macro conditions.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 25bps at its Sep 2, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-H25 yes 100