Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market has collapsed from 17¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting near-certainty that the ECB will not hike more than 25bps in April 2026, with the 3% implied probability pricing in minimal tail risk.
Analysis
This market has collapsed from 17¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting near-certainty that the ECB will not hike more than 25bps in April 2026, with the 3% implied probability pricing in minimal tail risk. The extremely thin liquidity ($2.8 in 24h volume) and wide 3¢ spread create execution challenges, though the $2,394 open interest suggests some committed positions. With 11 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this is a high-conviction market approaching expiry where the "No" side appears heavily favored by market participants.
Resolution rules
If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONEU-26APR30-H25P yes 100