Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $21 open interest, making the 38,923.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $21 open interest, making the 38,923.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 5¢ price reflects a 5% probability of a 50bps cut, which appears reasonable given recent Banxico policy trends, but the wide 5¢ spread and minimal trading activity suggest this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. With 18 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, traders should be cautious about relying on this market for genuine probability assessment given its illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26MAY07-C50 yes 100