Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $22 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 37,948% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless—such thin markets often misprice tail events.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $22 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 37,948% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless—such thin markets often misprice tail events. The 5¢ price reflects a 5% probability of a >50bps cut, which appears reasonable given recent Banxico policy trajectory, but the wide 5¢ spread and minimal trading activity suggest this contract lacks reliable price discovery. With 18 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this is a speculative position rather than a liquid hedging instrument.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26MAY07-C50P yes 100