Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,623.80 open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book (1¢ spread).
Analysis
This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,623.80 open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book (1¢ spread). The 351.3% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low base rate of Beshear being first among an unspecified list of candidates rather than genuine edge, particularly with 935 days until expiration providing ample time for price discovery. The high cliff risk index of 9 combined with neutral regime conditions indicates this market could experience sharp repricing closer to the resolution date, making current pricing potentially unreliable for serious traders.
Resolution rules
If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-ABES yes 100