Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. The 22¢ price reflects a modest 22% probability that Newsom declares first among an unspecified list of candidates, with extremely thin liquidity ($2,922.78 open interest and just $21.55 daily volume) creating execution risk for larger positions.
Analysis
The 22¢ price reflects a modest 22% probability that Newsom declares first among an unspecified list of candidates, with extremely thin liquidity ($2,922.78 open interest and just $21.55 daily volume) creating execution risk for larger positions. The asymmetric implied yields—146.8% for Yes versus 10.4% for No—suggest the market is pricing in significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate no recent catalysts have shifted sentiment materially. With 935 days to resolution and a 4/10 cliff risk index, this market faces substantial tail risk from unexpected political developments or candidate announcements that could rapidly reprrice the outcome.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW yes 100