Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261.9% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 1.2% on No, reflecting very low conviction at the 12¢ price despite nearly three years until expiration.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261.9% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 1.2% on No, reflecting very low conviction at the 12¢ price despite nearly three years until expiration. The $10 daily volume and $726 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 9¢ spread potentially misleading—actual execution could face significant slippage. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime suggest the market has settled into a quiet equilibrium, though the 32 cliff risk index warrants caution given the binary nature of declaration events.
Resolution rules
If J.B. Pritzker is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JPRI yes 100