What is the current probability for "Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027.

Where can I trade "Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $499·Closes Jan 1, 2027

KXDEFAULT-26DEC31

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 2741.4%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:40:55 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDEFAULT-26DEC31 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →