US defaults on debt by 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that US defaults on debt by 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices US debt default at just 5% despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,688% on the "Yes" side, suggesting extreme risk-reward asymmetry that attracts tail-risk speculators rather than mainstream traders.
Analysis
This market prices US debt default at just 5% despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,688% on the "Yes" side, suggesting extreme risk-reward asymmetry that attracts tail-risk speculators rather than mainstream traders. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $29.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates substantial liquidity is locked in at current prices, but the market is essentially frozen with minimal price discovery—the modest 1¢ move over seven days reflects stagnation rather than conviction. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this contract faces meaningful tail risk concentration as we approach the December 2026 deadline, though the neutral regime score suggests current market conditions don't reflect elevated near-term default probability.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5b9cb2fbdfb50eae19a1fdd228487ff797fab1539a1e74565b5e6ad3b586368b yes 100