Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's nominal value, and with only 11 days until expiry and resolution imminent, any meaningful position entry carries significant execution risk. The modest 2¢ upward price movement over seven days suggests minimal market conviction, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 warrants caution given the approaching resolution date for this economic data release.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.4 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.4 yes 100