What is the current probability for "Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84 ?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 62¢ (62% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 2 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84 ?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12978.3% and 16503.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84 ?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84 ?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84 ?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 11¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the Germany Ifo outcome.

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62¢

Bid/Ask 53/62¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $192·OI $360·Closes Apr 24, 2026·2d remaining

KXDEIFO-26APR24-T84

7-day price72 snapshots · 3 regime

74¢53¢ current

Apr 1045¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 11¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the Germany Ifo outcome. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability that April 2026 Ifo will exceed 84, yet the astronomical implied yields (1948% for Yes, 12883% for No) reflect the pricing distortion from such extreme probabilities rather than genuine opportunity. With only 7 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the 74¢ → 72¢ price movement likely reflects no actual trades.

Resolution rules

If Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 is above 84 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12978.3%

IY (No) 16503.4%

Adj IY 14028%

CRI 1

RV 286%

VR 0.26

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12978.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16503.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	14028%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	286%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:31 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDEIFO-26APR24-T84 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →