Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 85 ?

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 85 ?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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39¢
Bid/Ask 29/39¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $10·OI $11·Closes Apr 24, 2026·2d remaining
KXDEIFO-26APR24-T85
7-day price54 snapshots · 3 regime
43¢29¢ current
Apr 1022¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical implied yields (7870% for Yes, 3217% for No) reflect the minimal capital at stake rather than genuine expected returns, and the wide 10¢ spread further signals thin liquidity. With just 7 days to expiry and the price having declined from 43¢ to 39¢ over the past week, this appears to be a speculative micro-market with insufficient depth for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 is above 85 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 35830.8%
IY (No) 5977.7%
Adj IY 17915%
CRI 2
Overround 3.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)35830.8%
IY (No)5977.7%
Adj IY17915%
CRI2
Overround3.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:13:38 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXDEIFO-26APR24-T85 yes 100

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