Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The 31¢ price implies only a 31% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean stays at or below $0.11 through April 30, 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 6045% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or extreme tail risk pricing.
Analysis
The 31¢ price implies only a 31% probability that DOGE's trimmed mean stays at or below $0.11 through April 30, 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 6045% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or extreme tail risk pricing. With just $714 in 24-hour volume against $4,031 open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for larger positions. The realized volatility of 2,621% and info arrival rate of 4.6 events per hour indicate this market is highly reactive to DOGE price movements, though with only 14 days to expiry, the threshold of $0.11 appears well within reach given typical DOGE trading ranges.
Resolution rules
If the price of DOGE after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $0.11, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOGEMAXMON-DOGE-26APR30-011 yes 100