Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2029. This illiquid market on People's Force winning the Dominican Republic's Chamber of Deputies election shows extreme asymmetry, with a 198.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's viability.
Analysis
This illiquid market on People's Force winning the Dominican Republic's Chamber of Deputies election shows extreme asymmetry, with a 198.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's viability. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $1,523 open interest indicate minimal trading activity, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable; the recent 7-day movement from 8¢ to 14¢ represents a 75% rally that may reflect thin order books rather than genuine probability shifts. With over three years until the May 2029 close and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this contract faces substantial uncertainty around actual election timing and resolution mechanics, warranting caution for any position-building.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is People's Force, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICDEPUTIES-28-FP yes 100