Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2029. This market is severely illiquid with only $12 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $12 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment. The 1045.7% implied yield on the Yes side and 12¢ spread suggest the market may be mispriced or simply inactive, with the extreme yield likely reflecting the thin liquidity rather than true expected returns. With 1,129 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a speculative long-dated position with minimal market depth rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Dominican Liberation Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICDEPUTIES-28-PLD yes 100