What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal. The massive 3640.7% implied yield on the "No" side and 1630% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or a broken market mechanism rather than genuine conviction that Fed rates will stay at or below 3.2% by mid-2026. With 62 days to expiration and a 9¢ spread, this contract lacks the trading activity needed for price discovery, and the Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates potential resolution complications.
Resolution rules
If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.2% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2 yes 100