Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 98¢ (98% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 17, 2026. 57 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 55.8% and 7375.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	55.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7375.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3688%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?

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