What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $93.52 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $93.52 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 5984.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or a structural quirk of the contract, though the flat 7-day price action (holding at 9¢) indicates limited recent trading activity to validate this. With 62 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, traders should be cautious about relying on this contract's pricing given the minimal liquidity and wide 8¢ spread.
Resolution rules
If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.4% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.4 yes 100