What is the current probability for "Bradford vs Plymouth Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 5, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Bradford vs Plymouth Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 16033.6% and 424.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Bradford vs Plymouth Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Bradford vs Plymouth Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Bradford vs Plymouth Winner?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 4¢ to 41¢, suggesting minimal actual trading activity and unreliable pricing.

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17¢

Bid/Ask 14/16¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $841.08·OI $723.58·Closes May 5, 2026·14d remaining

KXEFLL1GAME-26APR21BRAPA-BRA

7-day price57 snapshots · 2 regime

42¢14¢ current

Apr 181¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 4¢ to 41¢, suggesting minimal actual trading activity and unreliable pricing. The astronomical implied yields (3271% for Yes, 1580% for No) and 4947% realized volatility are artifacts of the near-zero prices rather than genuine opportunities. With only 16 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread on a 41¢ midpoint, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the current price may not reflect true match probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Bradford wins the Bradford vs Plymouth professional EFL League One soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 16033.6%

IY (No) 424.9%

Adj IY 8017%

CRI 6

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	16033.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	424.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8017%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:11:46 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEFLL1GAME-26APR21BRAPA-BRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →