Rotherham vs Luton Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Rotherham vs Luton Winner?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero open interest and volume despite a 9¢ spread and extraordinary 4783% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero open interest and volume despite a 9¢ spread and extraordinary 4783% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side. The resolution criteria appears problematic—the market is titled "Winner?" but resolves Yes only on a Tie outcome, creating potential confusion that may explain the complete lack of trading activity. With only 16 days to expiry and the match originally scheduled for April 21, 2026, there's significant cliff risk (index of 4) if the game has already occurred or been rescheduled, making this contract potentially unresolvable or already expired.
Resolution rules
If Tie wins the Rotherham vs Luton professional EFL League One soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFLL1GAME-26APR21ROTLUT-TIE yes 100