Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,790 open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 9224% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing an extraordinarily unlikely event, though the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days suggests modest erosion in conviction. With 75 days to expiration and a 19 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative tail-risk contract with minimal practical trading utility given the wide 4¢ spread and near-zero liquidity.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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