What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1905.9% and 10.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2206% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 9% on the No side, suggesting either deep skepticism about emergency Fed cuts or potential mispricing given the 259-day timeframe.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 7/13¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $158.94·OI $48,873.07·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXEMERCUTS-26-T1

7-day price159 snapshots · 2 regime

12¢7¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2206% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 9% on the No side, suggesting either deep skepticism about emergency Fed cuts or potential mispricing given the 259-day timeframe. The 8¢ price has remained flat over seven days despite massive realized volatility of 3888% and a vol ratio of 8.10, indicating sharp intraday swings that haven't shifted the equilibrium. With only $240.87 in 24-hour volume against $48,303 open interest and a 16 cliff risk index, liquidity is thin and the market may struggle to find efficient pricing closer to the 1/1/2027 expiration.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 1 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1905.9%

IY (No) 10.8%

Adj IY 1906%

CRI 13

RV 1592%

VR 2.95

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1905.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1906%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1592%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.95	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	10.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.485

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:52:04 PM

SF edge 4.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +4¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEMERCUTS-26-T1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →