Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0 cuts
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
1 cuts
Spread
89pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Fed cut rates
Analysis
This market estimates an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice at unscheduled emergency meetings before the end of 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations of significant economic deterioration or financial stress severe enough to trigger extraordinary policy action outside the Fed's regular meeting schedule. Typical drivers would be recession signals, labor market collapse, or financial instability. The market contrasts sharply with related contracts showing only 46% probability of any rate cuts by year-end and 54% probability of zero cuts, suggesting traders see emergency cuts as more likely than gradual easing in normal meetings. The next scheduled Fed meeting is June 17-18, 2026, though emergency action could occur anytime if conditions warrant. Key upcoming data points include employment reports, inflation metrics, and any financial market stress signals through mid-2026.
- ›The 84% probability for emergency cuts conflicts with only 46% probability for any cuts by year-end, indicating markets price emergency action as more likely than standard policy easing
- ›Related contracts show 54% odds of zero rate cuts all year, creating logical tension with 84% odds of two emergency cuts specifically
- ›June 2026 meeting contract shows only 4¢ ($0.04) implied probability of a 25bps cut at the scheduled meeting, suggesting markets expect emergency action outside regular calendars
- ›Volume concentration in the 46¢ general-cuts contract ($4,734 24h vol) vastly exceeds contracts for specific emergency scenarios ($2,339 vol on zero-cuts), indicating lower conviction among traders on emergency-meeting specifications
- ›Economic data through May 2026 would need to show substantial deterioration or financial instability to justify emergency Fed action, which remains outside baseline forecast scenarios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Rate Hold is the Overwhelming Consensus for September 2026
The prediction market gives a 72% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its September 2026 meeting, while a rate cut is priced at just 1¢. This reflects a market that has fully priced out near-term rate cuts, believing the economy remains resilient. Any deviation in upcoming inflation or jobs data will create a significant trading opportunity in these high-volume contracts.
Fed Rate Markets See 73% Chance of No Hike in September
Fed rate decision markets show a 73% probability of no hike in September, with the 25bp hike contract at 26%. Unemployment and CPI contracts indicate a still-warm economy.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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