Will Cailee Spaeny win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Cailee Spaeny win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. Cailee Spaeny's Emmy odds have surged dramatically from 2¢ to 33¢ over seven days, suggesting recent catalyst-driven sentiment shift, though the $1 daily volume and $1,231 open interest indicate extremely thin liquidity that could amplify price volatility.
Analysis
Cailee Spaeny's Emmy odds have surged dramatically from 2¢ to 33¢ over seven days, suggesting recent catalyst-driven sentiment shift, though the $1 daily volume and $1,231 open interest indicate extremely thin liquidity that could amplify price volatility. The 143.7% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the neutral regime score, potentially reflecting overpricing given the long 516-day timeframe and uncertainty around her eligibility and competing performances. With a modest 5¢ spread and low cliff risk, this market lacks the urgency signals typical of near-term Emmy betting, suggesting traders may be pricing in speculative upside rather than fundamental probability.
Resolution rules
If Cailee Spaeny has won Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLSACTR-26SEP14-CAI yes 100