Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1699% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of minimal liquidity rather than genuine opportunity, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or eligibility. With 516 days to expiry, there's ample time for this market to develop, but current pricing should be treated as illustrative rather than actionable given the near-zero trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Tie has won Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLSACTR-26SEP14-TIE yes 100