Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 34% probability of Ethereum exceeding $3,750 by year-end 2026, implying an annualized return of 273% for Yes positions—a notably aggressive yield that reflects substantial tail risk given the 382% realized volatility and 2.21 vol ratio.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 34% probability of Ethereum exceeding $3,750 by year-end 2026, implying an annualized return of 273% for Yes positions—a notably aggressive yield that reflects substantial tail risk given the 382% realized volatility and 2.21 vol ratio. The 7-day price surge from 27¢ to 34¢ (26% move) suggests recent bullish sentiment, though the modest $531.50 daily volume and tight 2¢ spread indicate relatively thin liquidity for a market with $35.8k open interest. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears fairly priced for directional bets but warrants caution given the high realized vol and cliff risk index of 2.
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above 3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3750.00 yes 100