Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM
Leader sits at 14% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $3,500.00
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Above $3,750.00
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$539
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ethereum reach above $
Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,750.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3750.00
Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,500.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3500.00
Will Ethereum reach above $5000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $5,000.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-5000.00
Will Ethereum reach above $4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,750.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4750.00
Will Ethereum reach above $6000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $6,000.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-6000.00
Will Ethereum reach above $4500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,500.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4500.00
Will Ethereum reach above $4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,250.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4250.00
Will Ethereum reach above $4000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,000.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4000.00
Analysis
This probability estimates a 30% chance that Ethereum will trade above $3,750 by the end of 2026. The assessment reflects moderate skepticism about such a significant price move within roughly 8 months from now. Current market conditions and historical volatility patterns appear to be constraining the upside probability, while related contracts suggest traders see the $3,500 level as slightly more achievable at 36%. The resolution depends heavily on macroeconomic factors including interest rate policy, cryptocurrency adoption trends, and overall risk appetite in digital asset markets. Major regulatory developments or technological announcements could meaningfully shift probabilities in either direction. The outcome will be mechanically determined by whether Ethereum's highest price reaches the $3,750 threshold at any point through January 1, 2027, regardless of where it settles.
- ›Ethereum must appreciate approximately 27% from recent price levels to reach $3,750, requiring sustained bullish momentum over 8 months
- ›Related contract pricing ($3,500 target at 36%, $1,250 downside at 35%) suggests markets perceive meaningful downside risk alongside upside potential
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic policy through late 2026 will significantly influence risk asset valuations and capital flows into crypto
- ›Ethereum network developments, institutional adoption metrics, and regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions could act as catalysts to adjust probability materially
- ›Historical volatility in cryptocurrency markets means substantial price swings are possible, but the 30% probability reflects skepticism about achieving this specific $750+ move upward
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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