What is the current probability for "Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 32¢ (32% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 481.5% and 43.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $28 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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32¢

Bid/Ask 23/35¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $28·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXEUROVISIONJURY-26-AUS

7-day price279 snapshots · 2 regime

30¢23¢ current

Apr 923¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $28 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 363% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 611% realized volatility and 2.89 vol ratio indicate this contract experiences wild price swings on minimal trading activity. With 259 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, this remains a speculative micro-market best avoided until liquidity materially improves.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 29¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 3698.6%Close-time delta 5511h

Resolution rules

If Australia wins the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 481.5%

IY (No) 43.0%

Adj IY 481%

CRI 3

RV 884%

VR 4.25

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	481.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	43.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	481%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	884%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.25	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:19:24 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEUROVISIONJURY-26-AUS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →