Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 259-day timeframe to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 259-day timeframe to expiry. The implied yield of 381.6% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 1587% realized volatility and 6.32 vol ratio indicate wild price swings on minimal trading activity. The recent 8-cent price jump (19¢ to 27¢) over seven days warrants caution, as such movements in low-liquidity markets often lack fundamental justification.
Also on polymarket at 31¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
If France wins the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONJURY-26-FRA yes 100