Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 4564% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 4564% implied yield on the Yes side. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price itself, and the Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests meaningful binary outcome risk, indicating this contract may be mispriced due to thin trading rather than genuine probability assessment. With 259 days to expiry, there's sufficient time for the market to develop liquidity, but current conditions make this unsuitable for serious position-taking.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If United Kingdom wins the Jury Vote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONJURY-26-UNI yes 100