When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 8876% and a dramatic 7-day price collapse from 46¢ to 18¢, suggesting either new negative information or profit-taking after initial hype around BPC-157 reclassification prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 8876% and a dramatic 7-day price collapse from 46¢ to 18¢, suggesting either new negative information or profit-taking after initial hype around BPC-157 reclassification prospects. The 2213.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 75-day timeframe, indicating the market is pricing in very low probability despite what may have been prior bullish sentiment. Low liquidity ($2,749.46 open interest, $113.96 daily volume) and a high cliff risk index of 5 make this market prone to sharp moves, particularly as we approach the July 2026 deadline.
Resolution rules
If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26JUL01 yes 100