Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 738% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 27% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Lil Yachty's inclusion odds or substantial tail risk being priced in.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 738% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 27% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Lil Yachty's inclusion odds or substantial tail risk being priced in. The 12¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 17¢ price, and the $1,152 open interest combined with just $21 in 24-hour volume indicates severe illiquidity that could amplify slippage on meaningful trades. With 260 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 605%, this market is highly unstable—the recent 2¢ price movement (14¢ to 16¢) represents a 14% swing, and the cliff risk index of 5 suggests potential for sharp discontinuous moves around album release announcements.
Resolution rules
If Lil Yachty is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-LILY yes 100