Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 4545% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 4.3% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Ty Dolla $ign feature outcome at just 14¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 4545% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 4.3% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Ty Dolla $ign feature outcome at just 14¢. The 11¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 14¢ price, and anemic 24-hour volume of $20.21 against $1,078 open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify slippage on meaningful position sizes. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate 32 cliff risk index, the market has adequate time for resolution, but the combination of low volume, wide spreads, and extreme yield skew suggests this contract may be mispriced or simply lacks sufficient trader interest to establish efficient pricing.
Resolution rules
If Ty Dolla $ign is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-TYD yes 100