Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 27% over seven days from 73¢ to 57¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction that Yeat will feature on the album.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 27% over seven days from 73¢ to 57¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction that Yeat will feature on the album. The 11¢ spread and minimal $6.01 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, making this contract vulnerable to slippage and potentially unreliable for large positions. The asymmetric implied yields (106% for Yes vs. 186% for No) reflect the market's skepticism, though with 260 days to expiry and no cliff risk detected, there remains substantial time for album announcements or collaborations to shift sentiment.
Resolution rules
If Yeat is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-YEA yes 100