Will Michelle Bowman be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Michelle Bowman be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $4,259.47, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $4,259.47, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 3¢ spread. The implied yield of 20,136% on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the low price rather than a genuine opportunity, reflecting how little capital is actually deployed here. With Michelle Bowman currently a Fed Governor and Jerome Powell's term extending well beyond June 2026, the 3% probability appears reasonable, though the high cliff risk index of 32 suggests this contract could experience sharp repricing if unexpected Fed leadership changes occur.
Resolution rules
If Michelle Bowman officially holds the position of Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDLEADJUNE-26JUN17-MBOW yes 100