Who will win the next Finnish general election?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will win the next Finnish general election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2028. This market on the National Coalition Party winning Finland's 2027 election shows extreme asymmetry, with a 360% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 6.7% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's liquidity.
Analysis
This market on the National Coalition Party winning Finland's 2027 election shows extreme asymmetry, with a 360% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 6.7% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or very low confidence in the contract's liquidity. The $502 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate this is essentially illiquid, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 744 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, there's substantial time for political developments to shift the outcome, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions aren't driving strong directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Finnish general election in 2027 is National Coalition Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFINLANDPARLI-27-NCP yes 100