What is the current probability for "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 70 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6895.3% and 39.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market is pricing an extremely remote outcome at just 7¢, with zero 24-hour volume and only $257 open interest, making the 6450% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $319·Closes Jul 1, 2026·70d remaining

KXFREDDIE-26JUL01

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

7¢7¢ current

Apr 135¢Apr 14

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market is pricing an extremely remote outcome at just 7¢, with zero 24-hour volume and only $257 open interest, making the 6450% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical. The price has risen 40% over seven days (from 5¢ to 7¢), suggesting either fresh conviction or minimal trading moving a thin market, though the zero daily volume indicates no recent activity to confirm. With 75 days to expiry and a 13 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal liquidity and high execution risk.

Resolution rules

If Freddie Mac confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6895.3%

IY (No) 39.1%

Adj IY 3448%

CRI 13

Overround -0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6895.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3448%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:51 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFREDDIE-26JUL01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →