Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2045. This ultra-long-dated market (20+ years) shows modest bearish momentum with price declining 8 cents over seven days from 57¢ to 49¢, suggesting declining confidence in the UK PM being first to exit among G7 leaders.
Analysis
This ultra-long-dated market (20+ years) shows modest bearish momentum with price declining 8 cents over seven days from 57¢ to 49¢, suggesting declining confidence in the UK PM being first to exit among G7 leaders. The 51¢ price implies near coin-flip odds despite a 5.6% implied yield on the Yes side, though extremely thin liquidity ($16 daily volume, $6.8k open interest) makes the price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The neutral regime and low cliff risk indicate no imminent catalysts, but the extended timeframe and binary G7 comparison create substantial uncertainty around which leader will actually depart first.
Resolution rules
If the individual holding the title of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXG7LEADEROUT-45JAN01-KSTA yes 100