Will Keir Starmer leave office?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
22h ago
24h volume
$124
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
6722 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Naftali Bennett” vs “Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Naftali Bennett
Cluster 2
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Cluster 3
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?: Israel Katz
KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-IKAT
What moved the line
- Aug 5Benjamin Netanyahu↓3pp34→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Naftali Bennett↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Naftali Bennett↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Naftali Bennett↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In geopolitics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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