Will Keir Starmer leave office?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
6673 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Naftali Bennett” vs “Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Naftali Bennett
Cluster 2
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Analysis
This 13% probability reflects market expectations that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office before a specified end date. The Labour government, elected in July 2024, currently holds a substantial parliamentary majority, which structurally supports continuity. The probability would rise if major scandals emerged, parliamentary arithmetic shifted dramatically, or internal party pressure intensified; it would fall if the government stabilized further or approached a natural election cycle. The next general election, currently scheduled for 2029, represents the primary scheduled event that would likely resolve this question, though earlier departures could result from coalition collapse, health issues, or voluntary resignation.
- ›Labour holds a 137-seat majority in Parliament as of September 2026, providing structural stability absent of dramatic political shifts
- ›The next scheduled UK general election is May 2029, meaning Starmer has roughly three years before a natural end point unless extraordinary events intervene
- ›Historical UK prime ministerial departures without elections typically stem from health crises, serious scandals, or severe party management failures rather than routine circumstances
- ›No major coalition dependency exists; the government controls sufficient seats independently, reducing external pressure that could force early departures
- ›Labour internal polling and approval ratings would need to deteriorate significantly or rebel factions would need to grow substantially to create viable pressure for replacement
What moved the line
- Sep 19Benjamin Netanyahu↓4pp30→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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