Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture general election election in the first round?

The market is pricing in a very high probability (89%) that Georgia's 2026 Agriculture Commissioner race will be decided in the first round, with a 7¢ spread indicating reasonable liquidity despite zero 24-hour volume and modest $241 open interest. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—13.2% for Yes versus 315.1% for No—reflects the lopsided pricing, though the No side's theoretical yield is inflated by the tiny position size and should be discounted accordingly. With 566 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in Georgia's historical tendency toward first-round election victories in statewide races, but the lack of recent trading activity and high cliff risk (5/10) suggest limited conviction among traders.

Resolution rules

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade