Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia State School Superintendent general election election in the first round?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia State School Superintendent general election election in the first round?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $91 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $91 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. The massive asymmetry in implied yields—242.8% for "No" versus 17.2% for "Yes"—suggests the market is pricing in significant runoff risk for Georgia's superintendent race, though the high cliff risk index (4) indicates resolution uncertainty. With 566 days until expiry and minimal trading activity, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced forecast.
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (over 50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia State School Superintendent general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SUP yes 100