Will Cassiel Ato Forson win the next Ghanaian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Cassiel Ato Forson win the next Ghanaian presidential election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2029. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 646.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine opportunity, while the 8¢ spread represents an 80% bid-ask gap that would make entry or exit costly. With nearly 3.7 years until the 2028 Ghanaian election and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market activity rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Ghanaian presidential election (expected to be held in 2028 at the latest) is Cassiel Ato Forson, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGHANAPRES-28-CFOR yes 100