Will Haruna Iddrisu win the next Ghanaian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Haruna Iddrisu win the next Ghanaian presidential election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $39 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $39 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 646.7% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated—a classic artifact of thin markets where small positions create outsized percentage returns, though the risk-adjusted yield of 323% still suggests meaningful mispricing if Iddrisu has genuine viability as a candidate. With nearly 3.7 years until expiry and a wide 8¢ spread, this contract lacks the depth needed for confident analysis of Iddrisu's actual electoral prospects.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Ghanaian presidential election (expected to be held in 2028 at the latest) is Haruna Iddrisu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGHANAPRES-28-HIDD yes 100