Who will win the next Ghanian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Who will win the next Ghanian presidential election?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $73 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $73 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 101.4% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the neutral regime and modest 4 cliff risk index, suggesting either mispricing or very low confidence in the underlying contract mechanics. With 1,355 days to expiry and a recent 4-cent price decline, this appears to be a speculative long-tail bet with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Ghanian presidential election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGHANAPRES-28-JNAA yes 100