Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market on Chad Bianco advancing through California's top-two primary shows extreme mispricing with a 955% implied yield on the Yes side against only 35% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of the Republican candidate despite his recent 78% price surge from 9¢ to 16¢ over seven days.
Analysis
This market on Chad Bianco advancing through California's top-two primary shows extreme mispricing with a 955% implied yield on the Yes side against only 35% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of the Republican candidate despite his recent 78% price surge from 9¢ to 16¢ over seven days. The 473% realized volatility and high cliff risk (5/10) indicate substantial uncertainty around this outcome, though the thin $586 daily volume and $23k open interest raise liquidity concerns that may be exacerbating the yield distortion. With 201 days until the November 2026 close and an information arrival rate of 0.7 events per hour, this market appears to be in a neutral regime but warrants caution given the potential for sharp repricing as the primary approaches.
Resolution rules
If Chad Bianco advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-CBIA yes 100