What is the current probability for "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 2, 2027. 407 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 508.5% and 15.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will advance from California's top-two primary for governor?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—two Democrats advancing from California's top-two primary—at just 9¢, implying a 722% yield for Yes holders despite 409 days to expiry.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 15/18¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,181.54·OI $15,420.57·Closes Jun 2, 2027·407d remaining

KXGOVCAPRIMARYPARTY-26-2D

7-day price179 snapshots · 42 regime

17¢15¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—two Democrats advancing from California's top-two primary—at just 9¢, implying a 722% yield for Yes holders despite 409 days to expiry. The 6¢ spread and modest $177.66 daily volume suggest thin liquidity, while the 837% realized volatility and 3.70 vol ratio indicate this contract experiences sharp price swings, possibly driven by low-volume trades; the recent decline from 13¢ to 11¢ over seven days warrants monitoring for directional conviction. With a cliff risk index of 8 and info arrival rate of 0.9/hour, significant political developments could rapidly reprrice this market before the June 2027 close.

Resolution rules

If 2 Democrats advance to the general election for California Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 508.5%

IY (No) 15.8%

Adj IY 373%

CRI 6

RV 1012%

VR 3.99

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	508.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	373%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1012%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.99	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	12.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.27	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.692

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:22:09 PM

SF edge 11.0¢ noObservability directEvent type political

Edges (2)

NO +11¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

NO +14¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARYPARTY-26-2D yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →