Will Aric Nesbitt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Aric Nesbitt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Nesbitt's nomination odds have surged 1,200% over seven days from 2¢ to 26¢, though the 4¢ cross-venue gap (26¢ on Kalshi vs.
Analysis
Nesbitt's nomination odds have surged 1,200% over seven days from 2¢ to 26¢, though the 4¢ cross-venue gap (26¢ on Kalshi vs. 22¢ on Polymarket) suggests some pricing inefficiency favoring the Yes side here. The extreme realized volatility of 7,224% and asymmetric implied yields (524.6% for Yes vs. 64.8% for No) indicate this is a highly speculative, low-liquidity market with only $5.7k open interest where recent news likely triggered the sharp repricing with 198 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If Aric Nesbitt wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Michigan Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMINOMR-26-AN yes 100