How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme conviction that CPI will exceed 3.2% at some point in 2026, with the Yes contract priced at 99¢ and zero 24-hour volume suggesting the position is largely locked in.
Analysis
This market shows extreme conviction that CPI will exceed 3.2% at some point in 2026, with the Yes contract priced at 99¢ and zero 24-hour volume suggesting the position is largely locked in. The asymmetric implied yields—7.4% for Yes versus 2671.7% for No—reflect the massive probability skew, though the thin $702 open interest and 5¢ spread indicate low liquidity that could amplify price swings near the January 2027 expiration. The sharp 4-point rally over seven days (91¢ to 95¢) combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 19 suggests recent momentum toward the Yes outcome, though with 260 days remaining, this market may be overpricing the likelihood of CPI staying below 3.2% throughout all of 2026.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.2% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.2 yes 100