How high will CPI get this year
Leader sits at 22% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.2%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Above 4.4%
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will CPI get this year
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.4%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.4
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 5.0%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T5.0
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.9%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.9
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.8%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.8
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.7%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.7
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.6%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.6
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.5%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.5
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.3%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.3
How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.2%
KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T4.2
Analysis
This reflects an expectation that U.S. inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, will exceed 3.7% at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests market participants view this threshold as likely given current economic conditions, Fed policy trajectory, and recent inflation persistence. Upward pressure could come from labor market strength, energy prices, or supply-chain disruptions, while downward pressure might result from tighter monetary policy or cooling demand. The resolution will depend on actual CPI releases throughout the year, with monthly reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics providing the definitive data. The modest gap between the 3.7% and 3.8% contracts (97¢ vs 94¢) indicates moderate uncertainty about how much higher inflation might climb, suggesting traders see incremental increases as possible but not dramatic.
- ›Year-to-date CPI readings as of May 2026 establish the baseline; any monthly print above 3.7% would satisfy the contract
- ›Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance shape expectations about inflation trajectory and demand management
- ›Energy commodity prices, particularly crude oil and natural gas, directly influence CPI components and can shift quickly on geopolitical or supply shocks
- ›Labor market conditions and wage growth persistence determine whether price pressures remain embedded in the economy
- ›Monthly CPI releases from BLS (typically mid-month for prior month data) represent the concrete measurement events that resolve contract uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 4.6%↑8pp7→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 4.9%↑8pp3→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 4.3%↓7pp25→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 5.0%↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.2%↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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