Will the heating oil close price be above 3.649 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.649 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This heating oil contract shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 10,116% and annualized implied yields exceeding 2,800%, reflecting the binary nature of the April 30 expiry just two weeks away.
Analysis
This heating oil contract shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 10,116% and annualized implied yields exceeding 2,800%, reflecting the binary nature of the April 30 expiry just two weeks away. The market has collapsed 12 cents over seven days (60¢ to 48¢), suggesting declining probability of heating oil closing above $3.649/gallon, though the near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and minimal open interest ($63.48) indicate this is an illiquid micro-contract with limited price discovery. The 6-cent spread and cliff risk index of 1 highlight execution challenges and sharp payoff structure typical of narrow-band commodity futures contracts approaching resolution.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 3.649 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.649 yes 100